| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Below were my predictions for which 2013 movies would win the Oscar, as posted on my Facebook timeline an hour before the show. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 11/11 = 100% guessed correctly. I've posted Oscar predictions online since 2002, and this marked the first and only year that I got all 100% of my predictions right. Maybe I'll stop with the Oscar predictions thing now... Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | 12 Years a Slave | American Hustle | I'm happy with "12 Years a Slave" winning. Slavery is an abomination, and this win is symbolic. |
| Y | Best Director | Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity | David O. Russell, American Hustle | |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club | Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club | |
| Y | Best Leading Actress | Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine | Amy Adams, American Hustle | I'm slightly biased toward Amy Adams. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club | Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave | Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine | The Academy made it up to Hawkins by giving her her first nomination, but I didn't expect her to win. |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Spike Jonze, Her | Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell American Hustle | That was probably the toughest category to predict... |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave | Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight | |
| Y | Best Animated Feature | Frozen | The Wind Rises / Kaze Tachinu | |
| Y | Best Documentary Feature | 20 Feet from Stardom | The Act of Killing | |
| Y | Best Foreign Feature | The Great Beauty / La Grande Bellezza | The Hunt / Jagten |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Below were my predictions for which 2012 movies would win the Oscar. This has been one of the most unpredictable award seasons with the best pic front runner not even getting a director nom, the oldest and youngest best actress noms in history, etc. to which one might say, "Argo fuck yourself"... SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 7/11 = 64% guessed correctly. Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | Argo | Life of Pi | Year of the Snake = Year of the Split. It'll be the first time in seven years since best pic and director go separate ways. |
| N | Best Director | Steven Spielberg, Lincoln | Michael Haneke, Amour | Post-Show Analysis: Well, I bombed this year, guessing only 64% correctly. The main thing I got right was that this would be the year of the split, but never did I imagine there'd be such a split, i.e. such a democratic distribution of wealth over all possible contenders (and celebration of diversity with two Euro actors and one Ang Lee), which is awesome! That's why the Oscars still have the most clout/respect of entertainment awards. Seems I wasn't alone in thinking the front-runners of "Argo", "Lincoln", and "Silver Linings Playbook" were all over-rated. Seems the Academy also felt that no front-runner truly stood out and was totally deserving, opening the door to reward better, less mainstream, and simply more deserving films like "Life of Pi" and "Django Unchained". |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln | Joaquin Phoenix, The Master | See below. |
| N | Best Leading Actress | Emmanuelle Riva, Amour | Emmanuelle Riva, Amour | About the best lead actress category, it was supposed to be a tight race between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, with Jennifer Lawrence now the favorite. But would they want to reward Lawrence so early in her career, with so much critical/box office success and undoubtedly more nominations in the future? That's why the sentimental (and the right) choice is the 86-year-old Emmanuelle Riva, who gave the strongest performance of the crop (even though my fav performance is still 9-year-old Quvenzhané Wallis'), and Riva has the most impressive body of work (e.g. any actress who headlines both "Hiroshima Mon Amour" and "Amour" over 50 years apart gets my vote). Post-Show Analysis: The "Curse of the Best Actress Oscar" continues. |
| N | Best Supporting Actor | Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook | Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln | Two legends - two of the greatest actors of all time - will both be anointed with their third Oscar on the same night. So, who's better? Sorry De Niro, you're still my favorite actor ever, but Day-Lewis is my pick for best male actor of all time. No male actor disappears into character better (plus Day-Lewis sings better than Brando)... and Day-Lewis will also be making history as first male actor to win three lead Oscars (De Niro will have one lead and two supporting Oscars). Post-Show Analysis: Love Christoph Waltz, but why did they give him the award for doing the same schtick that won him the Oscar 3 years ago? The real travesty was that DiCaprio was not even nominated. He gave the best performance in "Django", although Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson weren't too far behind. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables | Amy Adams, The Master | Absolutely adore Amy Adams. That's four A's in a row. But Anne Hathaway is as clear of a favorite as Jennifer Hudson was. The movie "Les Misérables" was far from perfect, but the phenomenon of "Les Misérables" (including the novel, stage, countless movie adaptations, and everything in between over all these years) easily trumps any of the contenders this year. |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained | Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom | Loved both movies, okay with either winning. |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | Chris Terrio, Argo | David Magee, Life of Pi | How often is the movie better than the book? Life of Pi is just that. |
| N | Best Animated Feature | Wreck-It Ralph | Frankenweenie | Give Tim Burton a damn Oscar already! Post-Show Analysis: Even the animated feature category was a crapshoot with no truly outstanding pic: "Brave" was lucky to win, as it is simply not at the level of the Pixar films during their winning streak of "Ratatouille", "WALL-E", "Up", and "Toy Story 3". Obviously, the Oscars are much more predictable when there is that one truly deserving film that stands above the rest, like "The Artist" last year, which predictably swept the most prestigious categories. |
| Y | Best Documentary Feature | Searching For Sugar Man | Searching For Sugar Man | |
| Y | Best Foreign Feature | Amour | Amour |
|
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Below were my predictions for which 2011 movies would win the Oscar. This was the first year since 1993 (Schindler's List) that my favorite film of the year also won Best Picture. Furthermore, I can't think of a year when my top 2 films of the year took home Best Picture & Best Foreign Film. For one day at least, the American film industry put aside politics to celebrate the work of France and Iran. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 9/11 = 82% guessed correctly. Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | The Artist | The Artist | A "silent" movie winning big at the talkie-era Oscars is pretty special, as "The Artist" has got to be the most unique/non-mainstream film to win Best Picture in a very long time. |
| Y | Best Director | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist | |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Jean Dujardin, The Artist | Jean Dujardin, The Artist | As strong as Clooney was, Dujardin was stronger. |
| N | Best Leading Actress | Viola Davis, The Help | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Viola Davis is wonderful, but Meryl Streep is the best actor (male or female) of all time. Post-Show Analysis: I played it safe by predicting Viola Davis for the win, since she was considered the favorite ("The Help" was a huge hit and hardly anybody saw "The Iron Lady"), but I'm really happy Meryl Streep pulled the upset, 1) because she got my personal vote, plus 2) I maintain that Streep is the best actor of all time and I'm sure her performance was the best of the bunch (I didn't see "The Iron Lady" but saw quite a few clips, plus I had problems with "The Help" as a movie - although Spencer and Davis were the two best things about it). Now all Streep has to do is win two more Lead Oscars to surpass the great Katharine Hepburn. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Christopher Plummer, Beginners | Christopher Plummer, Beginners | More like a lifetime achievement award. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Octavia Spencer, The Help | Octavia Spencer, The Help | The most memorable character in this melodrama. |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris | Woody Allen just might be the greatest screenwriter of all time. |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, The Descendants | Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball | The dream team of Oscar-winning writers of Moneyball will lose, unfortunately. |
| Y | Best Animated Feature | Rango | The Adventures of Tintin | I am flabbergasted that The Adventures of Tintin wasn't nominated. I think Spielberg delivered two awesome pictures this year, but I guess the Academy is tired of him. |
| N | Best Documentary Feature | Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory | N/A | This is one of those rare years when I haven't actually watched any of doc nominees. Post-Show Analysis: I seriously considered picking Streep for the upset when I was writing up my predictions, and given another chance, I would've gotten that one right. However, given another chance, I would NEVER have guessed the winner for Best Documentary Feature ("Undefeated"). WTF. That category was a total crapshoot. |
| Y | Best Foreign Feature | A Separation | A Separation |
|
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Below were my predictions for which 2010 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 18/24 = 75% guessed correctly. Not bad. I beat Roger Ebert (14/24 = 58%) by outguessing him by 17% so I guess that means I win a subscription to whatever that thing was in that contest. Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | The King's Speech | Inception | It's been five years since the last split between Best Picture and Best Director. That's longer than all recent gaps, so a split is imminent. Inception would never win best pic, it requires too much intelligence, and the Academy discriminates against Sci-Fi and just "thinking man" pictures in general. The Social Network will be recognized in the directing category, although I think it'd be a more appropriate and symbolic Best Picture winner for our current age. (I think The King's Speech is a better movie so I'm totally cool with it winning instead.)
Post-Show Analysis: Splitsville on hold for now. |
| N | Best Director | David Fincher, The Social Network | Christopher Nolan, Inception | Fincher is a veteran. Hooper needs more films under his belt before he gets his first win: I predict Polanski/Marshall all over again.
Post-Show Analysis: Should've stuck with the 90% DGA rule. Plus, I was totally wrong about Hooper being a newbie. He's got 14 directing credits on IMDb. |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Colin Firth, The King's Speech | Colin Firth, The King's Speech | No-brainer. |
| Y | Best Leading Actress | Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Natalie Portman, Black Swan | In the same movie, Julianne Moore gave a more memorable performance than Annette Bening IMHO. No way Annette pulls the upset. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Christian Bale, The Fighter | Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right | Once touted as the next Brando, Ruffalo, who gave the most memorable performance in The Kids Are All Right, finally gets his first nom. Way overdue. Unfortunately for him, Bale is also way overdue for losing so much weight in The Machinist, a move which seemed all for naught years ago but may finally be paying dividends. Rush already has an Oscar so I hope the Academy shares the wealth. |
| N | Best Supporting Actress | Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit | Amy Adams, The Fighter | Amy Adams won't win, but I'd give the award to her because I have immense respect for her talent, and I also think she's gorgeous. The beloved Melissa Leo will split votes with Amy Adams, especially after Leo received criticism for tacky self-promotion. Oscar has a track record for giving this Oscar to very young girls. Plus, "supporting" Oscars often go to the those with the most screen time, and Steinfeld beats them all (she was really the "lead").
Post-Show Analysis: Leo had all the momentum and won the most pre-Oscar awards, so she was the favorite. I just thought vote splitting and tacky self-promotion would dim her chances. Turns out Leo is too loved in Hollywood for those negatives to have a measurable effect. |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | David Seidler, The King's Speech | Christopher Nolan, Inception | I love The King's Speech, but I love Inception even more. Obviously, my opinion doesn't count here. |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network | Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone | The Social Network will win this Oscar, but I feel it is a somewhat overrated film and script. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a very good movie, but don't compare it to Citizen Kane. First of all, real people (even real Harvard people) don't deliver that kind of contrived, overly witty dialogue in real life and, even if they did, certainly not with that frequency (one character talking this way would have been fine, but why is everybody including the Harvard president a smart-ass like Zuckerberg?). Secondly, whereas The Social Network is sexist and a guy's movie, Winter's Bone is the exact opposite, an unoffensive yet edgy film made by women and the epitome of naturalism, subtlety, and minimalism. Never seeming to care about ticket sales, Winter's Bone never comes across as trying too hard. |
| Y | Best Animated Feature | Toy Story 3 | Toy Story 3 | No-brainer. |
| Y | Best Documentary Feature | Inside Job | Exit Through The Gift Shop | Exit Through The Gift Shop is the best documentary of the year, totally original and cutting-edge. But Inside Job is probably the most important documentary of the year, even if a bit generic. |
| N | Best Foreign Feature | Incendies | Incendies | 100% on Rotten Tomatoes for the Canadian pic. Can't argue with that.
Post-Show Analysis: One of the most difficult categories to predict... I suppose one could look to In a Better World's Golden Globe win as a sign it was destined for Oscar glory. |
| This year, I predict every single category. Other categories: | ||||
| Y | Best Live Action Short | God of Love | The Crush | Of the two best in the bunch, my favorite short The Crush is too offbeat and quirky to win. God of Love feels epic and is also very easy viewing with undeniable charm and wit. |
| N | Best Animated Short | Day & Night | Day & Night | Innovative.
Post-Show Analysis: No way of knowing The Lost Thing would win. I just figured Pixar is Pixar, ya know? |
| Y | Best Documentary Short | Strangers No More | Strangers No More | A Jewish story beats a Muslim story anyday in Hollywood. |
| N | Best Cinematography | True Grit | True Grit | Deakins is WAY overdue. Give him the Oscar already!
Post-Show Analysis: Pfister was the dark horse. I'm really stoked for Inception. |
| Y | Best Editing | The Social Network | Inception | The Social Network deserves to win but Inception not even getting a nomination? What is up with that? |
| Y | Best Art Direction | Alice in Wonderland | Alice in Wonderland | Tim Burton is one of most underrated directors of all time. |
| Y | Best Costume Design | Alice in Wonderland | Alice in Wonderland | Tim Burton is one of most underrated directors of all time. |
| Y | Best Makeup | The Wolfman | The Wolfman | Baker. Enough said. |
| N | Best Original Score | The King's Speech | The Social Network | Desplat is long overdue. The super-talented Reznor should be happy to get his first nom for his memorable score.
Post-Show Analysis: The Social Network had more original and more memorable music. All I remember from The King's Speech was Beethoven and other non-original classics. Plus, The Social Network won the Golden Globe and more awards in this category than The King's Speech... so I'm not surprised it took home the Oscar too. FINALLY, the Academy has a record of giving the best score Oscar to first time nominees who are stars in the music industry, e.g. Eminem. |
| Y | Best Original Song | Toy Story 3 | Toy Story 3 | Toy Story 3. Enough said. |
| Y | Best Sound Mixing | Inception | Inception | Like The Matrix, Inception will sweep the technical categories. |
| Y | Best Sound Editing | Inception | Inception | See above. |
| Y | Best Visual Effects | Inception | Inception | See above. |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Below were my predictions for which 2009 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 6/11 = 55% guessed correctly...Ouch! Since 2005, seems I've been getting worse by the year! Well, I do have this to say... I do not regret taking the risk by trying to guess the upsets. I could've, as in years past, settled for betting on the favorites to win, that way assuring myself a comfortable winning percentage. However, based on experience, every year has at least one upset, so I opted to "go for the win" and risk "comfortable" by trying to guess which categories would have the upsets. Bottom line: I simply picked the upsets incorrectly. Moving on... Oscars aside, let me first say... A cussin' impressive year for the movies! In fact, a look into the past reveals that every year ending with a "9" has been a great year for movies (starting with 1939, oft considered the greatest year in film history). '09 Highlights: The White Ribbon is truly deserving of the Palme d'Or win at Cannes last May. Kings of the arthouse, the Dardenne Brothers, deliver their best, most complex work to date in Lorna's Silence. J. J. Abrams' reboot Star Trek amazes and is the best of the long-standing series. Paranomal Activity exceeds the hype and is one of the scariest films of all-time. Sin Nombre and (500) Days of Summer feature two of the best (and most heart-breaking) romance stories in a long time. Moon (NOT New Moon) is the deepest and most thought-provoking Sci-Fi since Blade Runner and 2001: A Space Odyssey. The best animated film this year (The Fantastic Mr. Fox) surprisingly is not from Pixar, even though Up is very high in the Pixar canon. Fantastic Mr. Fox and particularly Fish Tank and The Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans are the most hilarious "comedies" to come out in a while. I rank the apartheid-ish films in order of quality as 1) Skin, 2) District 9, 3) Avatar, and 4) Invictus with the ranking in reverse order of how hard the filmmakers try to jam a message down the audience's throats. To end on a positive note, '09 is a banner year for Sci-Fi and Animation and has the best work to date of veterans J.J. Abrams, Wes Anderson, Kathryn Bigelow, Jeff Bridges, George Clooney, Matt Damon, Dardenne Bros., Colin Firth, Mo'Nique, Jason Reitman, and Sam Rockwell. Back Top |
||||
| N | Best Picture | Avatar | Up in the Air | It's been four years since the last split between Best Picture and Best Director. That's longer than all recent gaps, so a split is imminent. The Hurt Locker would be the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner in a very long time and by FAR, and I just don't think that'll happen given that Best Picture winners always have pretty strong box office numbers (It is hard to ignore Avatar's INSANE record-breaking box office numbers). Finally, The Hurt Locker suffered from some recent bad press. All this makes me think that history will be made with the first Sci-Fi Best Picture winner ever.
Post-Show Analysis: I have completely lost faith in the Academy ever changing its conservative stance toward genre pictures outside of drama, especially when it comes to Sci-Fi and Comic Book movies. What do they have to gain from showing some love to these eternally-shafted genres? Political correctness and progressiveness (like having the first woman or minority director win) is certainly not at stake. After all, it is much better to be known for discriminating against comedy or horror films than to be known for discriminating against women and minorities. |
| Y | Best Director | Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon - A German Children's Story / Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte | Bigelow is set to make history as the first woman to win Best Director. And best of all, she deserves it. |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart | George Clooney, Up in the Air | With 5 nominations and 0 wins, there will be no denying "The Dude". Clooney will have to wait for his 2nd Oscar. On a side note, I met and hung out with the super cool Jeremy Renner at Sundance 2006 after seeing his astonishing star turn as the lead in Neo Ned, written by the award-winning Tim Boughn, who I have been collaborating with since 2008. Back then, I predicted great things for Renner's career, proclaiming Jeremy Renner the next Ryan Gosling. Clearly, Oscar feels the same way (now, I predict Ben Foster to be the next Jeremy Renner). |
| N | Best Leading Actress | Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia | Carey Mulligan, An Education | I know Sandra Bullock is the favorite, but The Blind Side is an incredibly average movie, and Bullock's performance, albeit quite good, is the weakest of the five. Thus, Bullock belongs in the "Just Happy to Get Her First Nomination" category. On the other hand, there has been serious talk about Meryl Streep being the greatest actress (or greatest actor, male or female) of ALL time. In order for Streep's status as GOAT to be cemented, she will need to at least tie Katharine Hepburn's record 4 wins in the category of "Best Actress in a Leading Role". After all, Streep already has the record for most acting nominations (16), and with no wins in nearly three decades, the Academy will probably make it up to her for last year... or the last 26 years. Add to all this that Meryl gives a typically accomplished larger-than-life performance as the real-life Julia (Oscar loves that kind of thing). Finally, I predict a similar oversaturation scenario for the over-campaigning Sandra Bullock that befell over-campaigning Mickey Rourke last year; Non-campaigning Sean Penn ended up winning another Oscar, so look to non-campaigning Meryl Streep to do the same.
Post-Show Analysis: Well, whatever...it boiled down to a popularity contest in the end. I actually like Sandra Bullock a lot and think she is very talented...ever since Speed, but don't tell me she deserved it over Meryl Streep. To be safer, one should always pick the favorites. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds | Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds | No-brainer. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire | Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire | No-brainer. |
| N | Best Original Screenplay | Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds | Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon - A German Children's Story / Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte | Standard upset where the second most likely candidate (The Hurt Locker) trumped the first. |
| N | Best Adapted Screenplay | Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air | Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air | Standard upset where the second most likely candidate (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire) trumped the first. |
| Y | Best Animated Film | Up | The Fantastic Mr. Fox | |
| Y | Best Documentary | The Cove | The Cove | |
| N | Best Foreign Film | The White Ribbon - A German Children's Story / Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte | The White Ribbon - A German Children's Story / Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte | Who would've thunk we'd have Departures Redux? I've heard the rationale for picking Argentina's The Secret in Their Eyes / El secreto de sus ojos, and I understand it but did not take the chance to cash in on this upset. |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Directly below were my predictions for which 2008 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 9/11 = 82% guessed correctly for larger group (7/8 = 88% guessed correctly for main categories). 2008 was a relatively weak year for movies, although there were some highlights. For example, 2008 produced the greatest comic book movie ever in The Dark Knight (and Iron Man wasn't too shabby either). Also, 2008 produced Pixar's best movie to date, WALL-E. 2008 also cemented Danny Boyle (Trainspotting, 28 Days Later..., Millions, Sunshine, and Slumdog Millionaire) as the most versatile director since Stanley Kubrick. Reactions to Nominations: Obviously, the Weinsteins and Holocaust movies still rule, otherwise how else do you explain a not particularly great film like The Reader slipping in past more deserving movies? The Academy is lame for not nominating the much more deserving The Dark Knight; Just watch the rating for the Oscar Ceremony continue to plummet when they could've had a chance of increasing audience viewership with the second highest-grossing film of all time. As for the uncertain, on the fence nominees, I was happy for Amy Adams, Josh Brolin, Taraji P. Henson, Richard Jenkins, Mike Leigh, Melissa Leo, Revanche, Michael Shannon, and Marisa Tomei, but I was unhappy that Sally Hawkins, Darren Aronofsky, and Bruce Springsteen totally got the shaft. I would've loved to see Dev Patel get a nod, but the backwards Academy was not ready to give a nomination to an Indian actor. I was surprised that Kate Winslet in The Reader moved to the Lead Actress category, denying her a deserved double nomination with her lead role in Revolutionary Road, but I guess spreading the wealth is okay. Sweden must feel pretty stupid that it didn't submit Let the Right One In / Låt den rätte komma in to the Academy. Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | The inferior The Curious Case of Benjamin Button may pull an upset since it leads the pack with thirteen nominations, plus Slumdog Millionaire does star an all-Indian cast. |
| Y | Best Director | Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire | Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire | |
| N | Best Leading Actor | Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler | Richard Jenkins, The Visitor | Yahoo! Expert picks Sean Penn, Milk. While I think Sean Penn gave the best performance of his storied career, I feel his chances are not great given the fact that 1) he already won, and 2) he has a prickly relationship with the Academy. I got this wrong, because I was trying to predict an upset, rather than staying with the safe choice: Front-runner Sean Penn. Also, it make sense Sean Penn won since his Into the Wild was totally snubbed last year. |
| Y | Best Leading Actress | Kate Winslet, The Reader | Kate Winslet, The Reader | Kate is the greatest actress of her generation. If she loses, she will share the record for most actress nominations without a win. But that won't happen. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight | Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona | |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Dustin Lance Black, Milk | Dustin Lance Black, Milk | The only pick that coincided with WGA. Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon, WALL-E could win. |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire | Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire | |
| Y | Best Animated Film | WALL-E | WALL-E | |
| Y | Best Documentary | Man on Wire | Man on Wire | |
| N | Best Foreign Film | Waltz with Bashir / Vals Im Bashir | Waltz with Bashir / Vals Im Bashir | Waltz with Bashir / Vals Im Bashir is definitely the front-runner. It could have been nominated in the animated and documentary categories, but since it only made the foreign list, it is a shoo-in. Plus, Beaufort from Israel lost last year. This is the year for Israel. Wow, eventual winner Departures / Okuribito came out of nowhere. It had no buzz due to its absence from Golden Globes, BAFTA, Independent Spirit, and critics' nominations lists. As I said before, there is always a surprise at the Oscars. But this was the biggest surprise in all the years I've been doing predictions. It is known that the foreign film category is very traditional, so I guess that's why they didn't go for such an unconventional picture, one that was experimental, animated, documentary, foreign, and from the very volatile nation of Israel. Apparently, there is literature out there that provides insight into what was going on in the minds of the nominating committee members after they viewed the films. Next time, I will read more. Either way, I am happy that Japan was awarded. |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Directly below were my predictions for which 2007 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 8/11 = 73% guessed correctly for larger group (6/8 = 75% guessed correctly for main categories). It was a very humbling year. Even tougher than last year, it is sure to go down in history as one of the most unpredictable years. I strongly believe 2007 was the best year in movies since 1994, and that's why there was so much competition and the most upsets in a long time! Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | No Country for Old Men | There Will Be Blood | |
| Y | Best Director | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men | Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (NOT EVEN NOMINATED!) | DGA solidified this choice. |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood | Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood | |
| N | Best Leading Actress | Ellen Page, Juno | Julie Christie, Away From Her | I was correct to predict that Julie Christie would be upset, as Oscar frowns upon people who badmouth the Oscars, especially those who already have an Oscar, preferring instead to spread the wealth. However, I didn't pick eventual winner Marion Cotillard, since I was not confident about picking a foreigner/film from a country where English is not the first language (especially France, a country at odds with ours), but I should have thought of Roberto Benigni at the 1999 Oscars (more below). Furthermore, I was misled by IMDb saying Ellen Page was favored to win, the emotional headlines about the American, Page's Independent Spirit award, and the fact that Juno was the big winner at the box-office. Instead, I should've gone with the BAFTAs (see explanation below) as a barometer. Most importantly, Oscar doesn't usually reward very subtle performances like Julie Christie's nor comedic performances like Ellen Page's. Instead, Oscar loves epic performances, especially in bio pics, and Marion Cotillard's performance was the only one out of the three front-runners that fit the bill. Finally, the betting line had 1) Julie, 2) Marion, and 3) Ellen, so if I knew Julie was going to be upset, I should've gone with Marion. (And I should've known that Oscar would love to have a unified headline like "Foreigners Sweep Acting Oscars.") Even if Ellen were #2 in the betting line, one could argue she is too young, and Oscar usually likes to make the young ones wait. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men | Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men | |
| N | Best Supporting Actress | Ruby Dee, American Gangster | Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There | By far, the craziest category of the year with no clear front-runner. As I started saying above, I should've gone with the BAFTAs as barometer, because they come after the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, and it's all about momentum. Case in point: Eventual Oscar winner Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA for best supporting actress as did eventual Oscar winner Marion Cotillard, who won the BAFTA for best leading actress. Plus, the Yahoo! Expert, who is pretty good with predictions, went with Tilda. More importantly, there is no denying George Clooney's influence. I was wrong to think that Oscar would give the award to Ruby Dee, because she won the SAG, she is very old, she is African-American, and Oscar is sympathetic. However, this logic doesn't work because Ruby Dee was receiving only her first nomination, which itself is enough of an honor (the sympathy vote logic above only works for old people like Alan Arkin who have never won despite multiple nominations), and Jennifer Hudson already won this category the year before (Oscar did not feel the pressure to be politically correct and reward yet another African American, not with Forest Whitaker making it 50% for African Americans the year before). Except for the SAG, Ruby Dee didn't win anything else, and curiously, she was not even nominated in this category for certain key awards. I should've used that information for my prediction. To round out the other choices, Saoirse Ronan was too young and was clearly the "back-runner". Amy Ryan ran out of momentum. Even though Cate Blanchett won the Golden Globe and Independent Spirit, she already won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for The Aviator. |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Diablo Cody, Juno | Brad Bird, Ratatouille | |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Yahoo! Expert erroneously predicted PT Anderson. Glad I stuck to my guns. |
| Y | Best Animated Film | Ratatouille | Ratatouille | Yahoo! Expert also predicted Ratatouille. Since Cars lost the year before, it was clear that the Academy was ready to make it up to Pixar. |
| N | Best Documentary | No End in Sight | Nanking (NOT EVEN NOMINATED!) | There were two front-runners with no clear favorite: No End in Sight and eventual winner Taxi to the Dark Side. Where I went wrong: Besides being misled by Yahoo! Expert, my logic that Alex Gibney (Writer/Director/Producer of Taxi to the Dark Side as well as Executive Producer of No End in Sight) would walk away a winner if either movie won, led me to choose No End in Sight, because that way both Alex Gibney and newcomer Charles Ferguson would "win". What I forgot is that Charles Ferguson (Writer/Director/Producer of No End in Sight) was a newcomer. The Academy likes to see you nominated a few times before giving you the Oscar, unless you kick so much ass that it is impossible to deny you an Oscar on your first outing. No End in Sight's director had only done one movie, while Taxi to the Dark Side's director had done 10+ films, had two Oscar nominations, and was due to take the statuette home. Rotten Tomatoes seals the deal: Taxi to the Dark Side has an 100% rating to No End in Sight's 94%. |
| Y | Best Foreign Film | The Counterfeiters / Fälscher, Die | The Diving Bell and the Butterfly / Le scaphandre et le papillon (NOT NOMINATED IN THIS CATEGORY!) | Beaufort from Israel seems like the only other possibility. |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Directly below were my predictions for which 2006 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 8/11 = 73% guessed correctly for larger group (7/8 = 88% guessed correctly for main categories). It was a very humbling year and is sure to go down in history as one of the most unpredictable years, with the most upsets in recent memory. Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | The Departed | Letters From Iwo Jima | |
| Y | Best Director | Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Pre-Prediction Rationale: This should finally be Marty's year. Scorsese shouldn't give a rat's ass, however, since the greatest directors never win the best director prize. The fact that Stanley Kubrick, Orson Welles, and Alfred Hitchcock never won the best director award speaks volumes about the Academy. |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland | Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland | |
| Y | Best Leading Actress | Helen Mirren, The Queen | Kate Winslet, Little Children | |
| N | Best Supporting Actor | Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls | Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children | Alan Arkin of Little Miss Sunshine scores upset win. Lesson: Alan Arkin won both the Independent Spirit and BAFTA (Murphy wasn't even nominated), leading right up to the Oscars with amazing momentum (That's why it's important to wait until the last Sunday morning to lock predictions!). The sympathy vote logic (discussed above) works here too, since Arkin is old and has never won, despite multiple nominations, while Murphy should just be happy to receive his first nomination ever. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls | Rinko Kikuchi, Babel | |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine | Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis, Letters From Iwo Jima | |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | William Monahan, The Departed | Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, Little Children | |
| N | Best Animated Film | Cars | Happy Feet | Happy Feet scores upset win; I should have stuck with Happy Feet, my original prediction until three days before the ceremony. The reason I predicted Happy Feet originally was that Cars was a relatively weak Pixar outing, and George Miller's Happy Feet was a very worthy competitor, well-reviewed, and a breath of fresh air. I changed later to Cars after it won the Annie, since I figured, up to this point in time, the Oscar and Annie had always gone to the same movie. I should've figured that, with no clear front runner, it was very likely that for the first time in history, the Oscar and Annie would go to different movies. |
| Y | Best Documentary | An Inconvenient Truth | An Inconvenient Truth | |
| N | Best Foreign Film | Pan's Labyrinth | Water | The Lives of Others / Das Leben der Anderen scores upset win. Lesson: Pan's Labyrinth was nominated and bound to win in so many other categories. That itself diminished its chances of winning this category, with such a worthy close competitor in The Lives of Others, which was nominated in only this one category. |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Directly below were my predictions for which 2005 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 10/11 = 91% guessed correctly, up from 82% last year. I did very well, but I still make the conclusion that there is always a surprise winner. Back Top | ||||
| N | Best Picture | Brokeback Mountain | A History of Violence (NOT EVEN NOMINATED!) | Crash wins upset bid due to politics! Here is a movie that did not win a single Golden Globe (and wasn't even nominated for Best Picture, out of 10 possible nominations). It's the same reason Paradise Now lost to Tsotsi (see Foreign Film category below): Oscar would rather play it safe than stomach the burden that comes with the controversy of bisexual cowboys and Palestinian suicide bombers. To quote my screenwriter friend Ben Cohen, "I do wish that [The Academy] would go back and watch Do the Right Thing, Grand Canyon, Short Cuts, Magnolia, Traffic, and Amores Perros and still tell me Crash is revolutionary." |
| Y | Best Director | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Pre-Prediction Rationale: Sure the Academy loves to award actors-turned-directors, so George Clooney could win, but they don't always award their own (Clint Eastwood for Mystic River in 2003, Robert Redford for Quiz Show in 1994, etc.). Plus, there is just way too much positive buzz about Brokeback, which is the clear front-runner. Finally, Ang Lee is due after receiving the shaft for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote | |
| Y | Best Leading Actress | Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line | Felicity Huffman, Transamerica | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | George Clooney, Syriana | Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener | Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain | |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco, Crash | Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale | |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain | Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich | |
| Y | Best Animated Film | Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit | Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit | |
| Y | Best Documentary | March of the Penguins | March of the Penguins | |
| Y | Best Foreign Film | Tsotsi | Paradise Now | I changed my prediction on 03/05/06 at 12:43 PM PST (just hours before the ceremony) from Paradise Now to Tsotsi, since there was too much controversy around Paradise Now, i.e. Israelis pressured the Academy to drop the story that humanizes Palestinian suicide bombers. I should have taken the chance and applied the same reasoning to Brokeback Mountain. |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Directly below were my predictions for which 2004 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 9/11 = 82% guessed correctly for larger group (7/8 = 88% guessed correctly for main categories). Back Top | ||||
| N | Best Picture | The Aviator | The Aviator | Million Dollar Baby wins. At this time in my development, I was unaware of all the possible barometers. |
| Y | Best Director | Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby | Martin Scorsese, The Aviator | |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Jamie Foxx, Ray | Jamie Foxx, Ray | |
| Y | Best Leading Actress | Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby | Uma Thurman, Kill Bill (NOT EVEN NOMINATED!) | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby | Thomas Haden Church, Sideways | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Cate Blanchett, The Aviator | Cate Blanchett, The Aviator | |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind | Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind | |
| Y | Best Adapted Screenplay | Alexander Payne, Sideways | Alexander Payne, Sideways | |
| Y | Best Animated Film | The Incredibles | The Incredibles | |
| N | Best Documentary | Super Size Me | Super Size Me | Born Into Brothels wins. Should've done research. Just figured Super Size Me rocked the box-office. |
| Y | Best Foreign Film | The Sea Inside | House of Flying Daggers (NOT EVEN NOMINATED!) |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Directly below were my predictions for which 2003 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 9/11 = 82% guessed correctly for larger group (7/8 = 88% guessed correctly for main categories). Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | In America (NOT EVEN NOMINATED!) | As predicted, In America was snubbed. |
| Y | Best Director | Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | |
| Y | Best Leading Actor | Sean Penn, Mystic River | Bill Murray, Lost in Translation | Critic's Choice Awards matched Oscar for all major acting categories this year. |
| Y | Best Leading Actress | Charlize Theron, Monster | Charlize Theron, Monster | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Tim Robbins, Mystic River | Tim Robbins, Mystic River | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain | Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain | |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan, and Kirsten Sheridan, In America | |
| N | Best Adapted Screenplay | Brian Helgeland, Mystic River | Brian Helgeland, Mystic River | Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, and Peter Jackson win for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. The epic LOTR swept the Oscars this year (Titanic, anyone?). I guess I should have seen this one coming, as Oscar loves to have an excuse to award movies that kill at the box-office, so that Oscar can improve its ratings. To many a fanboy, Oscar owed it to the LOTR trilogy, and there couldn't have been a more appropriate way than to award the third installment, which was indeed the best of what was essentially one movie, and a good one at best. |
| Y | Best Animated Film | Finding Nemo | Finding Nemo | |
| N | Best Documentary | Capturing the Friedmans | The Fog of War | Again, at this point in time, I was pretty ignorant of all the barometers out there, but I'm glad that the movie I thought deserved the Oscar, The Fog of War, actually walked away the winner. |
| Y | Best Foreign Film | The Barbarian Invasions | The Barbarian Invasions |
| Predicted Correctly? | Category | My Prediction for Academy's Choice | My Personal Choice, if I Could Pick The Winner | Comments |
| Directly below were my predictions for which 2002 movies would win the Oscar. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 7/11 = 64% guessed correctly for larger group (5/8 = 63% guessed correctly for main categories). Back Top | ||||
| Y | Best Picture | Chicago | Hero / Ying xiong (NOT EVEN NOMINATED!) | |
| N | Best Director | Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Back when I first started doing this predicting thing, I went purely on my gut, predicting based on who I thought deserved to win. If I had done my homework, I could have predicted Roman Polanski, since he too had not won an Oscar despite multiple nods, and when two directors are due to win, the award goes to the better reviewed movie, which in this case was The Pianist. |
| N | Best Leading Actor | Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York | Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York | Even if I did do my homework, I think most people would agree that this category had no clear front-runner this year and that Adrien Brody's win was a surprise. |
| Y | Best Leading Actress | Nicole Kidman, The Hours | Nicole Kidman, The Hours | The ice queen is overrated, but this is definitely her best performance of her career. |
| Y | Best Supporting Actor | Chris Cooper, Adaptation | Chris Cooper, Adaptation | |
| Y | Best Supporting Actress | Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago | Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago | |
| Y | Best Original Screenplay | Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her / Hable con ella | Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her / Hable con ella | |
| N | Best Adapted Screenplay | Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman, Adaptation | Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman, Adaptation | The Pianist wins. Obviously, it was not the best adapted screenplay. But I should've done my homework. |
| Y | Best Animated Film | Spirited Away | Spirited Away | |
| Y | Best Documentary | Bowling for Columbine | Bowling for Columbine | |
| N | Best Foreign Film | Crimen del padre Amaro, El | Hero / Ying xiong | Nirgendwo in Afrika wins. Should've done my homework. |